The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins
These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.
Since coming off the DL, in three starts, Derek Holland has 20 strikeouts and one walk. On paper the Mariners matchup looks like a great one, but the Mariners lead the majors in hard hit rate. Holland’s hit rate is very unusual in that he’s not allowing more hard contact, but he’s allowing less soft contact. Since the game is in Seattle I’m willing to bank on Holland’s skill set and the ballpark.
On paper Jon Gray could be a really sneaky streaming option because he’s on the road against a below average offense in a pitcher’s park. However, he allows a lot of hard contact, which doesn’t bode well for him. The counter point is he’s only had two of his six starts on the road. In his two road starts he has a 25.6 percent strikeout rate and 9.3 percent walk rate. He has many expected outcomes so buyer beware.
Colin Rea doesn’t have a high upside ceiling in regards to his overall future potential, but he faces the Rockies at home and a depleted Giants offense in San Francisco. Rea throws four pitches for strikes, but the quality of his is merely average. He’s only had five starts, but he’s allowing a lot of hard hit contact. So much so he would be on of the worst pitchers among qualified starting pitchers. He has a .338 BABIP so maybe he has been a little unlucky and the hard contact could be a little fluky, but from what I’ve seen he’s been hard hit because his command hasn’t been as good as it needs to be.
Since June Chris Heston has a 3.36 ERA and 1.249 WHIP (in 16 starts). He’s a high walker, but he’s been able to be successful because he ranks in the top 25 percent among qualified starting pitchers in ground ball rate. The Diamondbacks against righties, for the year, are tenth in hard hit rate and 11th in wOBA. The fact the game is in Arizona hurts Heston, but the Diamondbacks have the third highest ground ball rate so Heston will likely induce a lot of ground balls and should provide at least a quality start.