I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.
I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.
My Strategy
To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.
With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.
Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.
Last Note
This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.
My 50/50 Double Up Lineup
- P: Trevor Bauer (CLE) vs. J. Danks (CHW) — $7,100
- P: Matt Shoemaker (LAA) vs. K. Graveman (OAK) — $8,100
- C: Carlos Santana (CLE) vs. J. Danks (CHW) — $4,600
- 1B: Justin Morneau (COL) vs. O. Despaigne (SD) — $3,800
- 2B: Mike Avilies (CLE) vs. J. Danks (CHW) — $3,500
- 3B: Josh Harrison (PIT) vs. J. Arrieta (CHC) — $3,900
- SS: Hidden
- OF: Charlie Blackmon (COL) vs. O. Despaigne (SD) — $4,400
- OF: Hidden
- OF: Hidden
I’ve said for the past two years Trevor Bauer has immense potential. Today he gets to face a struggling White Sox lineup for the second time in 5-6 days. What matters most to me about Matt Shoemaker is the 24% strikeout rate and 2% walk rate. I don’t need to look at his FIP or xFIP to know he has been unlucky and the 4.38 ERA should regress. Mike Aviles mashes lefties and is going to bat second in the lineup against John Danks. When in doubt go with hitters playing in Colorado. Lastly, Josh Harrison is a hunch pick on my part.
